ANOTHER DEM DISASTER – OVERNIGHT:  Republicans have overtaken Democrats in registereed voters in the critical state of Florida.  The implications of this, both in next year's midterms and in the 2024 presidential election, are enormous.  From Bloomberg: 

Florida now has more registered Republicans than Democrats, undoing the Democratic party’s decades-old advantage in the nation’s largest swing state. 

Registered Republicans total around 5.1 million active voters as of the end of October, edging Democrats by around 4,000, according to the latest figures published by the Florida Division of Elections.

Florida has long attracted conservative-leaning retirees, though many hail from Democratic bastions such as New York. The southern state also was a migration destination during the pandemic for younger, working-age people seeking to avoid Covid-19 restrictions and register children at in-person schools, but it’s less clear how significant their numbers are.

The shifts are driven to a significant degree by the purging of voter rolls that typically takes place after an election year -- removing the deceased and those who have moved, as well as those who have failed to vote in two general elections and were unresponsive to state correspondence.

Election margins are typically very close in Florida, but the Sunshine State has consistently elected Republicans as governor since the early 1990s. Democrats have also lost Florida in two straight presidential elections, with the margin worsening in 2020.

COMMENT:  The statistical change also puts the focus on Florida's Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, a probable presidential contender for 2024 should Trump decide not to run.  If Republicans can nail down Florida early, it will give them a fast advantage in running their 2024 national campaign. 

Also, Republicans, buoyed by success in Florida, are no longer automatically conceding California to the Dems.  Although winning the largest state in the presidential contest is still a long shot, there are areas of California that are moving rightward, in response to the state's horrible Democratic leadership and degraded living conditions.  California is also suffering an exodus of voters, who often prefer red states because of lower taxes and better conditions.  If California gets wobbly for the Dems, it would be a political earthquake. Caused by global warming, of course.

November 18, 2021